OBJECTIVE To predict the potential suitable habitat area distribution for Dendrobium.

METHODS Based on current geographical distribution data and 19 bioclimatic variables, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate suitable distribution areas for Dendrobium under current conditions and four future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2081–2100.

RESULTS Precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), annual precipitation (bio12), temperature seasonality (bio4), and isothermality (bio3) were identified as the key climatic factors influencing the distribution of Dendrobium. Currently, highly suitable areas are primarily concentrated in central-southern Yunnan, the Karst mountainous regions of Guizhou and Guangxi, the mountainous areas surrounding the Sichuan Basin, and Hainan Island—spanning Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, and Hainan. By the 2090s, the total suitable area is projected to shrink under all scenarios except SSP3-7.0; specifically, highly and moderately suitable habitat areas in the south will contract to varying degrees, while low suitable habitat areas in southern Shaanxi, southern Hunan, and Hubei will expand slightly, indicating an overall northward shift in distribution.

CONCLUSION These findings offer insights into adjusting semi-wild cultivation areas for Dendrobium in response to future climate change and provide a basis for further investigating the impact of climate change on the growth of geo-authentic medicinal materials in China.